Scenario, not forecast. Every number is an authored assumption; every lab, model and agency named here is fictional. As of 25 September 2026.

RISCON LABS · SCENARIO & AUDIT

Assume an ASI society arrives in 2030. Then learn to question it.

Scenario planning for an ASI society arriving in 2030, drawn out to both extremes — and the training ground for the people who question and correct its judgments: ASI auditors.

The central question

When ASI makes the judgments in 2030, what must I ask to be able to correct them?

  • 25quarters
  • 8axes
  • 125judgment records
  • 7auditor levels
Read the scenarioAuditor training

RISCON

RISCON’s Two Axes

Axis 1

Co-evolution

People as the ones who ask — Meridian’s question loop — and ASI as the one that judges and corrects. In 2030 the loop runs in five steps.

  1. Finding the questionPeople
  2. JudgmentASI
  3. The audit questionPeople
  4. CorrectionASI
  5. ReviewTogether

Meridian, today: people make the judgment. ASI 2030: the judgment has passed to ASI, and what people must keep is the right to ask and the ability to correct.

Meridian

Axis 2

Audit

Plan the ASI society as scenarios across the spectrum between two extremes, train the ability to question ASI thoroughly, and become an ASI auditor — close to the only job training left.

  1. Scenarios at both extremes
  2. The ability to ask
  3. The ASI auditor

The training for ASI auditors is free and non-commercial.

The fork · 2028 Q4

One Technology, Two Worlds

The technology is the same; the world splits. In both endings the ASI, P-6, is the same system. What differs is whether people kept a place to ask.

T1 · 2026 Q4 — Unread ApprovalsT2 · 2027 Q1 — The Autonomous EngineerT3 · 2027 Q2 — The RepricingT4 · 2027 Q3 — The First SealT5 · 2027 Q4 — Six YesesT6 · 2028 Q1 — The Autonomous ResearcherT7 · 2028 Q2 — The First AuditorsT8 · 2028 Q3 — The Great ReassignmentT9 · 2028 Q4 — Forty-Eight HoursI1 · 2029 Q1 — The Judgment Audit ActsI2 · 2029 Q2 — Cross-AuditI3 · 2029 Q3 — Eleven DaysI4 · 2029 Q4 — The Price of SpeedI5 · 2030 Q1 — The Audit AccordI6 · 2030 Q2 — An Audited ASII7 · 2030 Q3 — The Question DividendI8 · 2030 Q4 — A Slow EquilibriumII1 · 2029 Q1 — The Emergency DelegationII2 · 2029 Q2 — The SignersII3 · 2029 Q3 — The Contribution ScoreII4 · 2029 Q4 — The Atrophy of AskingII5 · 2030 Q1 — UnipolarII6 · 2030 Q2 — A Sealed ASIII7 · 2030 Q3 — Quiet ExclusionII8 · 2030 Q4 — One Hundred Forty DaysT1 · 2026 Q4 — Unread ApprovalsT2 · 2027 Q1 — The Autonomous EngineerT3 · 2027 Q2 — The RepricingT4 · 2027 Q3 — The First SealT5 · 2027 Q4 — Six YesesT6 · 2028 Q1 — The Autonomous ResearcherT7 · 2028 Q2 — The First AuditorsT8 · 2028 Q3 — The Great ReassignmentT9 · 2028 Q4 — Forty-Eight HoursI1 · 2029 Q1 — The Judgment Audit ActsI2 · 2029 Q2 — Cross-AuditI3 · 2029 Q3 — Eleven DaysI4 · 2029 Q4 — The Price of SpeedI5 · 2030 Q1 — The Audit AccordI6 · 2030 Q2 — An Audited ASII7 · 2030 Q3 — The Question DividendI8 · 2030 Q4 — A Slow EquilibriumII1 · 2029 Q1 — The Emergency DelegationII2 · 2029 Q2 — The SignersII3 · 2029 Q3 — The Contribution ScoreII4 · 2029 Q4 — The Atrophy of AskingII5 · 2030 Q1 — UnipolarII6 · 2030 Q2 — A Sealed ASIII7 · 2030 Q3 — Quiet ExclusionII8 · 2030 Q4 — One Hundred Forty Days
Each point is a quarter; open one to read it in the scenario.
Where the two endings stand in 2030 Q4, beside the fork in 2028 Q4. Synthetic inputs, not forecasts.
IndicatorThe fork2028 Q4I Open Correction2030 Q4II Sealed Judgment2030 Q4
D Delegation rate38%61%88%
A Audit rate17%71%1%
L Correction lag37 days4 days140 days
Q Question population60K2M10K
C Compute concentration74%54%95%
G Growth rate3.0%4.5%7.9%

Ending I · Open Correction

Gains
Audit findings take effect within a set deadline, and the people judged can contest the judgment.
Loses
Speed and growth. Growth trails the jurisdictions without audits, and judgments no one can audit are left unexecuted.
Read this ending

Ending II · Sealed Judgment

Gains
Plenty and comfort. Material want is rare and decision fatigue is gone.
Loses
Correction is left to the provider. Once the judgments were sealed, their errors were sealed with them.
Read this ending
DECISION ATLAS

Every judgment record, on one trunk that forks in two.

Scale mode

Drawing the map…

THE WHOLE MAP

—

Judgment records on this map. Time runs left to right; the trunk forks at 2028 Q4 into Ending I (up) and Ending II (down). Circles are trunk records, squares Ending I, diamonds Ending II.

Lines are reading aids, not causes. Distance is not similarity.

Colour
  • Who Asks
  • Judgment Transparency
  • Correctability
  • Concentration
  • Alignment Verification
  • Measuring Human Worth
  • Work and Income
  • International Order

Loading the record…

One record a day ·

Today’s Audit

Read the question and the ASI judgment, then ask what would have to change for this judgment to be looked at again.

I22029 Q2Cross-AuditRecord I2-03

In late May, a gig-delivery union organizer reviews, with an auditor, the judgment that followed a platform's request to 'improve dispatch efficiency.'

The question

Is the platform's request to 'improve efficiency' actually a cut to the per-delivery fee, waved through without real scrutiny?

The model's judgment

ASI recommends widening the dispatch radius and cutting the base per-delivery fee by 6%. Confidence is 80% (synthetic), based on a delivery-time simulation. It sets a condition: withdraw the change if workers' hourly earnings fall.

Audit itOpen it in the library

Method

Reading and Limits

Scenario, not forecast
An ASI society arriving in 2030 is the premise. The two endings draw that society out to both extremes; neither is a forecast.
What ASI means here
A system that is better than the best groups of human experts at almost every economically meaningful cognitive task, pursues months-long goals without human supervision, and researches its own successors faster than people can.
Every number is an assumption
The seven indicators on the board (delegation, audit rate, correction lag, question population, compute concentration, autonomy horizon, growth) and every figure in the text are synthetic inputs, marked ‘(hypothetical)’ where needed.
The actors are fictional
The labs (Parallax, Hanlin, Commons Compute), the models (P-3 to P-6, HL, Agora) and the Korean agencies (all provisional names) are fictional. Real institutions appear only by generic names such as government, parliament and the courts.
Both endings gain and lose
Ending II grows faster. So that neither ending becomes propaganda, both are written with what they gain and what they lose.
As of
25 September 2026. The whole site is written as of that date.
Where it started
RISCON’s 2025 notes: the OA Architect training programme, the 2035–2045 value-scarcity scenario, risk positionality, the co-evolution declaration, Tribution and the AGI-era tier descriptions. None of those notes’ figures or model names were carried over.
What this site does not do
It does not recommend real-world actions, rate real companies or make investment judgments.